Tongariro Alpine Crossing economic impact report

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Tongariro Alpine Crossing - Economic impact assessment of proposed visitor restrictions (PDF, 991K)

Report summary

The report consists of two main sections.

Economic impact analysis

The economic impact analysis covers the contribution of the Tongariro Alpine Crossing (TAC) to national economy and employment impacts of a range of potential limits on visitor numbers (scenarios). It explores potential lost revenue to DOC (concessions, activity fees and levies) and visitor spending that is lost to local economies, in those scenarios compared with visitor numbers in 2018/19. It assumes the recovery of international visitor markets post-pandemic will take until 2026/27.

Sensitivity analysis

The sensitivity analysis assesses uncertainty by modelling the number of visitors who will visit the TAC under each limit and the total revenue associated with that visitor level. This analysis is based on DOC modelling of re-booking behaviour.

The consultant used a bespoke economic impact model that traces the flow of goods and services through the economy and assesses the spread of visitor volume and revenue outcomes.

Report limitations

The analysis does not consider:

• Any price responses to visitor limits.
• Specific revenue losses to individual businesses; it focuses on a system level.
• Wider economic costs and benefits, such as health and wellbeing effects, connecting with nature, social and cultural values, maintenance costs, and environmental protection.

The analysis was based on a comparison with visitor numbers in a single year, 2018/19, the year when TAC had its highest ever visitor numbers.

Report findings

• The lower any limit on visitor numbers, the higher the economic impact.
• The highest modelled impact for a limit of 600 visitors per day was a loss of $10-$12 million, and for 1,500 visitors per day was a gain of $0-$2.5 million
• The results are quite sensitive to numbers of people rebooking if they are unable book on their day of choice.

It is important to note the assessment:

• Is not a cost/benefit analysis.
• Is based on imposing a monthly average.
• Did not look at increasing the value per visitor.
• The potential dispersal of visitors to other parts of NZ, or other destinations across the region, may mitigate some of the effects at a local and national levels.