AlleleRetain

The AlleleRetain program can be used to predict the retention of alleles in a population following translocation. It requires the input of detailed demographic data on the species. While calculating allele retention, it also models population growth based on the survival and productivity data entered and produces two graphs that clearly show this information.

AlleleRetain is freely available for anyone to use. However, you will need to input all of the required demographic data for your species and have sufficient computer processing power to run the program.

Sources of demographic data

We used demographic data from a variety of sources to run our models. This included very detailed published scientific literature or research data. Where data were not available, we included expert opinion from those with significant experience working with each species.

In some cases, the data were based on what we know about a similar species. For example, we used known data from North Island robins to fill in the gaps in our demographic data on South Island robins. In these instances, we also sought expert opinion to ensure that our assumptions were reasonable.

Further research and monitoring will help to fill gaps in our knowledge and will also allow you to monitor your own translocation and input real-time data if you choose to re-run the models. This will help you to model your own translocation outcome more accurately.

This is a model – the best estimate of what will happen

A model is a tool to help with decision making and is only as good as the data provided and the model design. Real life is always much more complex. By using our best data and running the model over and over again, we can make a good estimate of what will happen – but we need to remember that there is always the possibility of unexpected events and stay sharp with our planning and thinking!

Run 1,000 times

We ran each model 1000 times to allow an average of the outcomes to be generated and graphed. Because this is a model, each run comes out slightly differently and so it is only by running it many times that we get a more confident result. But you must remember that this is a model, not the real world, and so there will be variation in your particular scenario.

Genetic diversity provides a species with capacity for adaptation

Each translocation should aim to establish large, genetically diverse populations because large populations carry a range of genes that may allow them to adapt over time. For example, a more genetically diverse population is theoretically more likely to survive the arrival of a new disease or a change in the environment that may be driven by global climate change. Therefore, you need to maximise genetic diversity at the very start.