Trait-based climate change vulnerability assessments of terrestrial taxa in Aotearoa New Zealand

Introduction

This report assesses the vulnerability of New Zealand native species to climate change. We'll use the findings to prioritise our work for species that are in the most critical need.

Science for Conservation 343, January 2025

Summary

Cover of Trait-based climate change vulnerability assessments of terrestrial taxa in Aotearoa New Zealand report

Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) were undertaken for 1,145 terrestrial taxa of bats, birds, herpetofauna, vascular plants and invertebrates in Aotearoa New Zealand to identify which taxa are potentially the most vulnerable to climate change impacts.

We used an established trait-based CCVA framework adapted to the Aotearoa New Zealand context to assess 16 traits under three dimensions of climate change vulnerability – sensitivity, low adaptive capacity and exposure – using expert elicitation. To be classified as Highly Vulnerable to climate change, a taxon needed to trigger ‘higher vulnerability’ for at least one trait under each vulnerability dimension.

Exposure assessments that used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) high-emission RCP8.5 scenario indicated that 351 (31%) of the taxa assessed will be Highly Vulnerable by the mid-21st century, increasing to 746 taxa (65%) by late century. By contrast, exposure assessments using the moderate-emission RCP4.5 scenario identified 153 (13%) Highly Vulnerable taxa by mid-century and 215 (19%) by late century. We also identified many Latent Risk taxa across all groups (taxa that are sensitive and have a lower adaptive capacity but are not yet exposed to climate change), emphasising the need for ongoing monitoring to detect if environmental changes are occurring sooner than predicted by modelling.

Our study revealed critical data gaps, especially for invertebrates and vascular plants, and many groups of taxa were excluded due to a lack of available expertise to undertake the assessment. Nevertheless, the results of these assessments will assist the Department of Conservation Te Papa Atawhai in prioritising climate change adaptation, management and research actions for the taxa that are in the most critical need.

Authors

Anni Brumby, Jane Marshall, Tara Murray, Colin O’Donnell and Rosalie Richards

Read the report

Trait-based climate change vulnerability assessments of terrestrial taxa in Aotearoa New Zealand (PDF, 8,700K)

Online Supplementary Information

Note that all Online Supplementary Information is provided in its raw, unedited form. If you find any discrepancies, please refer to the main report.